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Lidingo vs Gute Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Lidingo

PPG 0.50 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Gute

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.5%0-16.1%0-27.5%0-36.2%0-4+6.8%1 1-03.0%1-17.5%1-29.3%1-37.6%1-4+8.5%2 2-01.9%2-14.6%2-25.7%2-34.7%2-4+5.2%3 3-00.8%3-11.9%3-22.4%3-31.9%3-4+2.2%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.8%4+-21.0%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.3% 40.8% 2.45 -34.6%

Draw 22.4% 28.6% 3.50 -13.0%

Away win 60.2% 40.8% 2.45 +47.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% 65.4% 1.53 -2.2%

Over 3.5 50.7% 43.5% 2.30 +16.6%

BTTS 59.7% 70.4% 1.42 -15.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -22.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob59.7%

A 60% / xG 1.2-2.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.3%

#2 1–1✓ 7.5%

#3 1–3 7.6%

#4 0–2 7.5%

#5 0–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lidingo1.2

Gute2.5

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 50.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LIDINGO · PPG 0.50

GUTE · PPG 2.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Lidingo (H) 17.3%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -34.6%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.0%

Gute (A) 60.2%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +47.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lidingo face Gute in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lidingo a 17% chance, the draw 22% and Gute 60%, so Gute are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Lidingo and 2.5 for Gute (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lidingo are averaging 0.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Gute. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +47.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Lidingo vs Gute Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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