Today / Puskas A. W vs Ferencvaros W

Puskas A. W vs Ferencvaros W Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Puskas A. W
PPG 2.60 · HOME
2 – 0
FULL TIME
✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5
Ferencvaros W
PPG 2.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-16.6%0-25.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.1%1-110.7%1-28.1%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.7%2-26.5%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.1%3-14.7%3-23.5%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 40.2%
Draw 24.5%
Away win 35.2%
Over 2.5 61.4%
Over 3.5 38.1%
BTTS 59.7%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 2-0
xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob59.7%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%
#2 2–1 8.7%
#3 1–2 8.1%
#4 2–2 6.5%
#5 0–0 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Puskas A. W1.6
Ferencvaros W1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PUSKAS A. W · PPG 2.60

FERENCVAROS W · PPG 2.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.60), Away EXCELLENT (2.60)

Win probability 1X2

Puskas A. W (H) 40.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 24.5%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Ferencvaros W (A) 35.2%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Puskas A. W face Ferencvaros W on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Puskas A. W a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Ferencvaros W 35%, so Puskas A. W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Puskas A. W and 1.5 for Ferencvaros W (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Puskas A. W are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 2.60 for Ferencvaros W. This match finished 2-0.

PredictVantage

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