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Mariehamn vs KuPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 7 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 14:00

Mariehamn

PPG 0.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

KuPS

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.9%0-116.5%0-210.6%0-34.5%0-4+1.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.7%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-03.8%2-14.9%2-23.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.0%3-11.2%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.4% 15.4% 6.50 +35.2%

Draw 30.0% 23.1% 4.33 +29.9%

Away win 45.6% 70.4% 1.42 -35.3%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 15.2% 36.4% 2.75 -34.9%

BTTS 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob48.6%

A 46% / xG 0.8-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 12.9%

#2 0–1 16.5%

#3 1–1✓ 12.7%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mariehamn0.8

KuPS1.3

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MARIEHAMN · PPG 0.67

KUPS · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Mariehamn (H) 24.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +35.2%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +29.9%

KuPS (A) 45.6%

ODDS 1.42 · IMPLIED 70.4% EV -35.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mariehamn face KuPS in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mariehamn a 24% chance, the draw 30% and KuPS 46%, so KuPS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Mariehamn and 1.3 for KuPS (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mariehamn are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.33 for KuPS. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +35.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Mariehamn vs KuPS Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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