Today / Harju JK vs Vaprus

Harju JK vs Vaprus Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Harju JK

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Vaprus

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.0%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.3%1-110.7%1-26.9%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.4%3-15.6%3-23.6%3-31.6%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.7%4+-22.4%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 25.5% — — —

Over 2.5 59.4% — — —

Over 3.5 36.8% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 2–0 7.4%

#4 1–2✓ 6.9%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Harju JK1.8

Vaprus1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HARJU JK · PPG 1.40

VAPRUS · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.40) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Harju JK (H) 49.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vaprus (A) 25.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Harju JK face Vaprus on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Harju JK a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Vaprus 26%, so Harju JK are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Harju JK and 1.3 for Vaprus (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Harju JK are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.00 for Vaprus. This match finished 1-2.

Harju JK vs Vaprus Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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