Today / ACV Assen vs Koninklijke HFC

ACV Assen vs Koninklijke HFC Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

ACV Assen

PPG 0.81 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Koninklijke HFC

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.81) > Away POOR (0.44)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.3%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.0%1-111.6%1-27.4%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.1%2-19.1%2-25.9%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.7%3-14.8%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% — — —

Draw 26.7% — — —

Away win 26.9% — — —

Over 2.5 55.8% — — —

Over 3.5 32.2% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.7%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 0–0 5.7%

#4 1–2 7.4%

#5 1–0✓ 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ACV Assen1.6

Koninklijke HFC1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ACV ASSEN · PPG 0.81

KONINKLIJKE HFC · PPG 0.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.81) > Away POOR (0.44)

Win probability 1X2

ACV Assen (H) 46.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 26.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Koninklijke HFC (A) 26.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ACV Assen face Koninklijke HFC on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ACV Assen a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Koninklijke HFC 27%, so ACV Assen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for ACV Assen and 1.3 for Koninklijke HFC (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ACV Assen are averaging 0.81 points per game versus 0.44 for Koninklijke HFC. This match finished 1-0.

ACV Assen vs Koninklijke HFC Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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