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One Taguig vs Stallion Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Group Stage ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 13:00

One Taguig

PPG 2.70 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stallion

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-11.5%0-20.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.3%1-14.7%1-22.6%1-30.9%1-4+0.3%2 2-07.0%2-17.6%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.5%3-18.1%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-013.5%4+-114.8%4+-28.0%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.3% — — —

Draw 21.1% — — —

Away win 14.6% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 62.5% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 63%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -19.8%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 64% / xG 3.2-1.1 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.1%

#2 2–1 7.6%

#3 3–0✓ 7.5%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 4–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

One Taguig3.2

Stallion1.1

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 62.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ONE TAGUIG · PPG 2.70

STALLION · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.70) vs P(Home)=64.3%

Win probability 1X2

One Taguig (H) 64.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Stallion (A) 14.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

One Taguig face Stallion in Philippines - PFL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives One Taguig a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Stallion 15%, so One Taguig are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for One Taguig and 1.1 for Stallion (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, One Taguig are averaging 2.70 points per game versus 1.73 for Stallion. This match finished 3-0.

One Taguig vs Stallion Prediction— Philippines - PFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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