Today / Marburg vs Hanauer SC

Marburg vs Hanauer SC Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Marburg

PPG 1.33 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hanauer SC

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-14.3%0-23.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.9%1 1-05.8%1-18.8%1-26.7%1-33.4%1-4+1.8%2 2-05.9%2-19.0%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.0%3-16.1%3-24.6%3-32.4%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-15.0%4+-23.8%4+-31.9%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.7% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 25.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 47.7% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

H 51% / xG 2.0-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–2 6.7%

#5 3–1 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marburg2.0

Hanauer SC1.5

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 47.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MARBURG · PPG 1.33

HANAUER SC · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.33) > Away AVERAGE (1.00)

Win probability 1X2

Marburg (H) 50.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hanauer SC (A) 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Marburg face Hanauer SC on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marburg a 51% chance, the draw 24% and Hanauer SC 25%, so Marburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Marburg and 1.5 for Hanauer SC (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marburg are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Hanauer SC. This match finished 1-1.

Marburg vs Hanauer SC Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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