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Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji Sagarejo Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 15:00

Kolkheti Poti

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Gareji Sagarejo

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.1%0-115.8%0-28.3%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.7%1-113.3%1-27.0%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.3%2-15.6%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.5%3-11.6%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.1% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Draw 33.9% 31.3% 3.20 +8.5%

Away win 37.0% 46.5% 2.15 -20.4%

Over 2.5 35.0% 46.5% 2.15 -24.8%

Over 3.5 12.4% 26.3% 3.80 -31.7%

BTTS 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

D 34% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.1%

#2 1–1✓ 13.3%

#3 0–1 15.8%

#4 1–0 12.7%

#5 0–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kolkheti Poti0.8

Gareji Sagarejo1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 12.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KOLKHETI POTI · PPG 1.67

GAREJI SAGAREJO · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.67), Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

Kolkheti Poti (H) 29.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -7.6%

Draw 33.9%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +8.5%

Gareji Sagarejo (A) 37.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -20.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kolkheti Poti face Gareji Sagarejo in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kolkheti Poti a 29% chance, the draw 34% and Gareji Sagarejo 37%, so Gareji Sagarejo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Kolkheti Poti and 1.1 for Gareji Sagarejo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kolkheti Poti are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.83 for Gareji Sagarejo. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Kolkheti Poti vs Gareji Sagarejo Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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