Today / Shamakhi vs Turan

Shamakhi vs Turan Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Shamakhi

PPG 1.06 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Turan

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-119.8%0-211.0%0-34.1%0-4+1.4%1 1-011.0%1-112.2%1-26.7%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-03.4%2-13.7%2-22.1%2-30.8%2-4+0.3%3 3-00.7%3-10.8%3-20.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.6% — — —

Draw 34.0% — — —

Away win 42.5% — — —

Over 2.5 35.0% — — —

Over 3.5 9.7% — — —

BTTS 46.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob46.2%

A 42% / xG 0.6-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.8%

#2 0–1 19.8%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–2 11.0%

#5 1–0 11.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Shamakhi0.6

Turan1.1

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 9.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SHAMAKHI · PPG 1.06

TURAN · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.81) vs Home AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Shamakhi (H) 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 34.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Turan (A) 42.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Shamakhi face Turan on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Shamakhi a 24% chance, the draw 34% and Turan 43%, so Turan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Shamakhi and 1.1 for Turan (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Shamakhi are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.81 for Turan. This match finished 3-2.

Shamakhi vs Turan Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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