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Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 33 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:45

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cracovia Krakow

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-110.4%0-25.3%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-18.3%2-24.2%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.5%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 37.0% 2.70 +22.0%

Draw 28.4% 29.0% 3.45 -1.2%

Away win 26.3% 41.0% 2.44 -21.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 58.8% 1.70 -21.5%

Over 3.5 19.5% 35.7% 2.80 -27.2%

BTTS 51.6% 63.7% 1.57 -19.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motor Lublin1.3

Cracovia Krakow1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.44

CRACOVIA KRAKOW · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

60%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.44) > Away AVERAGE (1.06)

Win probability 1X2

Motor Lublin (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +22.0%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -1.2%

Cracovia Krakow (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.44 · IMPLIED 41.0% EV -21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motor Lublin face Cracovia Krakow in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motor Lublin a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Cracovia Krakow 26%, so Motor Lublin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Motor Lublin and 1.0 for Cracovia Krakow (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motor Lublin are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.06 for Cracovia Krakow. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 3-3.

Motor Lublin vs Cracovia Krakow Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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