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Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 7 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 18:30

Pogon Szczecin

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWDD

UPCOMING

Wisla Plock

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 56.8% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-15.8%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.6%1-110.6%1-24.4%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.1%3-16.0%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-14.2%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 54.1% 1.85 +5.1%

Draw 22.0% 29.4% 3.40 -15.1%

Away win 21.2% 26.7% 3.75 -12.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 31.7% 33.3% 3.00 -4.9%

BTTS 52.9% 59.9% 1.67 -11.7%

Home O1.5 55.2% 54.6% 1.83 +1.0%

Away O1.5 23.9% 33.3% 3.00 -17.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 57% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.6%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 1–1 10.6%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pogon Szczecin1.8

Wisla Plock0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

POGON SZCZECIN · PPG 1.54

WISLA PLOCK · PPG 1.16

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.00 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Pogon Szczecin (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +5.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -15.1%

Wisla Plock (A) 21.2%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pogon Szczecin face Wisla Plock in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pogon Szczecin a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Wisla Plock 21%, so Pogon Szczecin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Pogon Szczecin and 0.8 for Wisla Plock (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.16 for Wisla Plock. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +9.4%.

Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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