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Wieczysta Kraków vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 7 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:00

Wieczysta Kraków

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

UPCOMING

Zaglebie Lubin

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS 59% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-18.3%0-25.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.9%1-112.2%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.2%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.3%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.1% 50.0% 2.00 -17.8%

Draw 24.0% 30.3% 3.30 -12.5%

Away win 35.0% 29.4% 3.40 +19.0%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.8% 1.73 -6.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 36.4% 2.75 -12.8%

BTTS 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Home O1.5 39.9% 52.4% 1.91 -23.8%

Away O1.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -12.6%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 41% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wieczysta Kraków1.5

Zaglebie Lubin1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WIECZYSTA KRAKÓW · PPG 1.25

ZAGLEBIE LUBIN · PPG 1.09

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

59%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wieczysta Kraków (H) 41.1%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -17.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.5%

Zaglebie Lubin (A) 35.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +19.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wieczysta Kraków face Zaglebie Lubin in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wieczysta Kraków a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Zaglebie Lubin 35%, so Wieczysta Kraków are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.2 for Zaglebie Lubin (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wieczysta Kraków are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.09 for Zaglebie Lubin. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.0%.

Wieczysta Kraków vs Zaglebie Lubin Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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