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Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:45

Widzew Łódź

PPG 1.19 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLDL

UPCOMING

Radomiak Radom

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.2% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a clear edge.

+15.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-14.0%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.4%1-18.9%1-24.7%1-31.7%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.3%2-19.8%2-25.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.8%3-17.3%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-16.7%4+-23.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 55.2% 1.81 +1.7%

Draw 21.3% 26.7% 3.75 -12.1%

Away win 22.5% 25.0% 4.00 -6.0%

Over 2.5 63.7% 58.8% 1.70 +8.3%

Over 3.5 40.5% 35.7% 2.80 +13.4%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 66.2% 57.1% 1.75 +15.8%

Away O1.5 32.5% 34.5% 2.90 -5.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.5%

H 56% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.9%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–2 4.7%

#5 3–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Widzew Łódź2.2

Radomiak Radom1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

WIDZEW ŁÓDŹ · PPG 1.19

RADOMIAK RADOM · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Widzew Łódź (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +1.7%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.1%

Radomiak Radom (A) 22.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Widzew Łódź face Radomiak Radom in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Widzew Łódź a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Radomiak Radom 23%, so Widzew Łódź are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Widzew Łódź and 1.1 for Radomiak Radom (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Widzew Łódź are averaging 1.19 points per game versus 0.73 for Radomiak Radom. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +27.6%.

Widzew Łódź vs Radomiak Radom Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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