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Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:15

Motor Lublin

PPG 1.28 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

UPCOMING

Legia Warszawa

PPG 1.41 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-111.5%0-27.2%0-33.0%0-4+1.3%1 1-010.4%1-113.0%1-28.2%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-05.9%2-17.4%2-24.7%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-02.2%3-12.8%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 27.4% 3.65 +12.4%

Draw 26.5% 27.0% 3.70 -1.2%

Away win 42.7% 52.6% 1.90 -18.9%

Over 2.5 50.4% 58.8% 1.70 -14.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 35.7% 2.80 -11.8%

BTTS 52.9% 61.7% 1.62 -14.3%

Home O1.5 31.2% 36.4% 2.75 -14.2%

Away O1.5 36.8% 55.6% 1.80 -33.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 43% / xG 1.1-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 1–0 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motor Lublin1.1

Legia Warszawa1.3

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTOR LUBLIN · PPG 1.28

LEGIA WARSZAWA · PPG 1.41

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.12, combined xG 2.39 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Motor Lublin (H) 30.8%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +12.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.2%

Legia Warszawa (A) 42.7%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -18.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motor Lublin face Legia Warszawa in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motor Lublin a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Legia Warszawa 43%, so Legia Warszawa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Motor Lublin and 1.3 for Legia Warszawa (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motor Lublin are averaging 1.28 points per game versus 1.41 for Legia Warszawa. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +10.0%.

Motor Lublin vs Legia Warszawa Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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