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Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:30

Korona Kielce

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

UPCOMING

Wisla Krakow

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-16.7%0-23.6%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.4%1-26.2%1-32.3%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.7%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-05.0%3-15.5%3-23.0%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.4%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 44.6% 2.24 +12.4%

Draw 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Away win 25.9% 34.5% 2.90 -14.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 60.6% 1.65 -11.2%

Over 3.5 32.2% 37.7% 2.65 -14.7%

BTTS 55.8% 64.5% 1.55 -13.5%

Home O1.5 49.9% 51.3% 1.95 -2.7%

Away O1.5 33.1% 44.4% 2.25 -25.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 73 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -12.1%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.8%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Korona Kielce1.7

Wisla Krakow1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

KORONA KIELCE · PPG 1.37

WISLA KRAKOW · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Korona Kielce (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.24 · IMPLIED 44.6% EV +12.4%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Wisla Krakow (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -14.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Korona Kielce face Wisla Krakow in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Korona Kielce a 50% chance, the draw 24% and Wisla Krakow 26%, so Korona Kielce are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Korona Kielce and 1.1 for Wisla Krakow (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Korona Kielce are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.06 for Wisla Krakow. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +9.4%.

Korona Kielce vs Wisla Krakow Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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