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Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 18:15

Jagiellonia

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLWL

UPCOMING

Slask Wroclaw

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 63% chance

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.4%0-22.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.7%1-110.4%1-25.5%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.9%3-16.3%3-23.4%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.4%4+-14.6%4+-22.5%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Draw 23.4% 25.6% 3.90 -5.2%

Away win 24.0% 23.8% 4.20 +0.5%

Over 2.5 60.3% 63.7% 1.57 -5.3%

Over 3.5 37.5% 42.0% 2.38 -10.8%

BTTS 59.0% 63.7% 1.57 -7.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 61.7% 1.62 -9.6%

Away O1.5 32.5% 36.4% 2.75 -10.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.7%

#5 1–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jagiellonia1.9

Slask Wroclaw1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.3% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

JAGIELLONIA · PPG 1.62

SLASK WROCLAW · PPG 1.06

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.84 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Jagiellonia (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -12.2%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -5.2%

Slask Wroclaw (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jagiellonia face Slask Wroclaw in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jagiellonia a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Slask Wroclaw 24%, so Jagiellonia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Jagiellonia and 1.1 for Slask Wroclaw (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jagiellonia are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.06 for Slask Wroclaw. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.6%.

Jagiellonia vs Slask Wroclaw Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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