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Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:30

Lech Poznan

PPG 1.87 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

UPCOMING

Raków Częstochowa

PPG 1.11 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 66% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.4%0-21.6%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.5%1-18.1%1-23.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.1%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.0%3-17.6%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-17.9%4+-23.8%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.8% 61.7% 1.62 +5.0%

Draw 18.8% 25.0% 4.00 -14.9%

Away win 16.4% 22.2% 4.50 -15.7%

Over 2.5 65.0% 65.4% 1.53 -0.5%

Over 3.5 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

BTTS 56.7% 66.7% 1.50 -14.9%

Home O1.5 66.3% 65.4% 1.53 +1.4%

Away O1.5 26.1% 36.4% 2.75 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob56.7%

H 65% / xG 2.4-1.0 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.1%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 1–1 8.1%

#4 3–0 8.0%

#5 3–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lech Poznan2.4

Raków Częstochowa1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LECH POZNAN · PPG 1.87

RAKÓW CZĘSTOCHOWA · PPG 1.11

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

66%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.42 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Lech Poznan (H) 64.8%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV +5.0%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -14.9%

Raków Częstochowa (A) 16.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -15.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lech Poznan face Raków Częstochowa in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lech Poznan a 65% chance, the draw 19% and Raków Częstochowa 16%, so Lech Poznan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Lech Poznan and 1.0 for Raków Częstochowa (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lech Poznan are averaging 1.87 points per game versus 1.11 for Raków Częstochowa. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +10.8%.

Lech Poznan vs Raków Częstochowa Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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