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Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:45

Cracovia Krakow

PPG 1.65 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWL

UPCOMING

Gornik Zabrze

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS 58% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-19.0%0-25.5%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.2%1-112.5%1-27.6%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.6%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.0%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.7% 40.0% 2.50 +4.3%

Draw 24.0% 31.3% 3.20 -13.9%

Away win 34.4% 38.2% 2.62 -9.9%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 32.0% 29.4% 3.40 +8.8%

BTTS 55.9% 58.8% 1.70 -5.0%

Home O1.5 39.6% 44.4% 2.25 -10.9%

Away O1.5 36.8% 38.2% 2.62 -3.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 74 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -8.6%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 2–1 8.6%

#3 1–0 10.2%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 0–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cracovia Krakow1.4

Gornik Zabrze1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CRACOVIA KRAKOW · PPG 1.65

GORNIK ZABRZE · PPG 1.83

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cracovia Krakow (H) 41.7%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +4.3%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.9%

Gornik Zabrze (A) 34.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cracovia Krakow face Gornik Zabrze in Poland - Ekstraklasa on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cracovia Krakow a 42% chance, the draw 24% and Gornik Zabrze 34%, so Cracovia Krakow are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Cracovia Krakow and 1.2 for Gornik Zabrze (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cracovia Krakow are averaging 1.65 points per game versus 1.83 for Gornik Zabrze. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Cracovia Krakow vs Gornik Zabrze Prediction— Poland - Ekstraklasa

Match Preview & Prediction

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