Today / Lisse vs RBC

Lisse vs RBC Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Lisse

PPG 2.06 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

RBC

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.7%0-22.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.0%1-18.5%1-25.1%1-32.1%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.0%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.0%3-17.3%3-24.4%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-17.0%4+-24.2%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% — — —

Draw 23.6% — — —

Away win 22.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 45.8% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.0%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 3–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lisse2.3

RBC1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LISSE · PPG 2.06

RBC · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.06) vs P(Home)=54.0%

Win probability 1X2

Lisse (H) 54.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

RBC (A) 22.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lisse face RBC on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lisse a 54% chance, the draw 24% and RBC 22%, so Lisse are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Lisse and 1.2 for RBC (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lisse are averaging 2.06 points per game versus 1.13 for RBC. This match finished 3-2.

Lisse vs RBC Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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