Today / Serbia - Super Liga / Cukaricki vs R. Surdulica

Cukaricki vs R. Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Championship Group · Matchday 31 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Cukaricki

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLDD

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

R. Surdulica

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.7%0-17.1%0-23.8%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.7%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.1%2-19.6%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.2%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.0% 46.3% 2.16 +10.2%

Draw 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -21.3%

Away win 24.5% 31.3% 3.20 -21.6%

Over 2.5 50.6% 51.3% 1.95 -1.3%

Over 3.5 28.5% 29.9% 3.35 -4.5%

BTTS 52.6% 58.8% 1.70 -10.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 42%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -37.4%

Bet Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.6%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 11.1%

#3 2–1 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 0–1 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cukaricki1.6

R. Surdulica1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CUKARICKI · PPG 1.73

R. SURDULICA · PPG 0.93

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

57%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.73) > Away POOR (0.93)

Win probability 1X2

Cukaricki (H) 51.0%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV +10.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -21.3%

R. Surdulica (A) 24.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -21.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cukaricki face R. Surdulica in Serbia - Super Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cukaricki a 51% chance, the draw 25% and R. Surdulica 25%, so Cukaricki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cukaricki and 1.1 for R. Surdulica (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cukaricki are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 0.93 for R. Surdulica. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +10.2%. This match finished 2-2.

Cukaricki vs R. Surdulica Prediction— Serbia - Super Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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