Today / BFA Vilnius vs Atmosfera

BFA Vilnius vs Atmosfera Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

BFA Vilnius

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 5

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Atmosfera

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-110.0%0-27.3%0-33.5%0-4+1.8%1 1-08.4%1-112.2%1-28.9%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.1%2-17.5%2-25.4%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.1%3-13.0%3-22.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.2%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.8% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 39.3% — — —

Over 2.5 52.6% — — —

Over 3.5 28.0% — — —

BTTS 54.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-5

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob54.3%

A 39% / xG 1.2-1.5 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.9%

#3 0–0 6.9%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFA Vilnius1.2

Atmosfera1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BFA VILNIUS · PPG 1.75

ATMOSFERA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.75), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

BFA Vilnius (H) 34.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Atmosfera (A) 39.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

BFA Vilnius face Atmosfera on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFA Vilnius a 35% chance, the draw 26% and Atmosfera 39%, so Atmosfera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for BFA Vilnius and 1.5 for Atmosfera (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFA Vilnius are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 2.00 for Atmosfera. This match finished 0-5.

BFA Vilnius vs Atmosfera Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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