Today / Turkgucu M. vs T. Augsburg

Turkgucu M. vs T. Augsburg Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Turkgucu M.

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

T. Augsburg

PPG 0.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.67) > Away POOR (0.13)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-19.0%0-25.3%0-32.1%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.6%1-112.5%1-27.4%1-32.9%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.4%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.4%3-14.1%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.9%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.4% — — —

Draw 27.9% — — —

Away win 26.6% — — —

Over 2.5 50.7% — — —

Over 3.5 25.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.6%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–0 7.6%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 1–2 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Turkgucu M.1.4

T. Augsburg1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TURKGUCU M. · PPG 0.67

T. AUGSBURG · PPG 0.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.67) > Away POOR (0.13)

Win probability 1X2

Turkgucu M. (H) 45.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

T. Augsburg (A) 26.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Turkgucu M. face T. Augsburg on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Turkgucu M. a 45% chance, the draw 28% and T. Augsburg 27%, so Turkgucu M. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Turkgucu M. and 1.2 for T. Augsburg (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Turkgucu M. are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.13 for T. Augsburg. This match finished 2-4.

Turkgucu M. vs T. Augsburg Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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