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Gebenbach vs Stadeln Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Bayern Nord - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Gebenbach

PPG 1.80 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Stadeln

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.5%0-14.0%0-22.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.7%1-18.8%1-25.0%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.3%3-17.2%3-24.1%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-16.7%4+-23.9%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% — — —

Draw 23.9% — — —

Away win 22.3% — — —

Over 2.5 62.3% — — —

Over 3.5 43.4% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.7%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 3–1 7.2%

#5 1–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gebenbach2.2

Stadeln1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 43.4%

Form & verdict PPG

GEBENBACH · PPG 1.80

STADELN · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.80) vs P(Home)=53.7%

Win probability 1X2

Gebenbach (H) 53.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Stadeln (A) 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Gebenbach face Stadeln in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gebenbach a 54% chance, the draw 24% and Stadeln 22%, so Gebenbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Gebenbach and 1.1 for Stadeln (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gebenbach are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 0.67 for Stadeln. This match finished 3-0.

Gebenbach vs Stadeln Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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