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F. Regensburg vs Weiden Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Bayern Nord - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

F. Regensburg

PPG 2.07 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Weiden

PPG 1.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-14.9%0-24.5%0-32.7%0-4+1.8%1 1-04.9%1-18.8%1-28.0%1-34.8%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.2%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.6%3-14.7%3-24.3%3-32.6%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-13.2%4+-22.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% — — —

Draw 24.6% — — —

Away win 37.4% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 48.7% — — —

BTTS 62.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob62.6%

A 37% / xG 1.8-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 1–3 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

F. Regensburg1.8

Weiden1.8

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 48.7%

Form & verdict PPG

F. REGENSBURG · PPG 2.07

WEIDEN · PPG 1.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.07) > Away GOOD (1.67)

Win probability 1X2

F. Regensburg (H) 38.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Weiden (A) 37.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

F. Regensburg face Weiden in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives F. Regensburg a 38% chance, the draw 25% and Weiden 37%, so F. Regensburg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for F. Regensburg and 1.8 for Weiden (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, F. Regensburg are averaging 2.07 points per game versus 1.67 for Weiden. This match finished 4-2.

F. Regensburg vs Weiden Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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