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Coburg vs Neumarkt Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Bayern Nord - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Coburg

PPG 1.13 · HOME

2 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Neumarkt

PPG 1.47 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-13.1%0-24.4%0-34.1%0-4+5.6%1 1-01.9%1-15.3%1-27.4%1-36.9%1-4+9.5%2 2-01.6%2-14.5%2-26.3%2-35.9%2-4+8.1%3 3-00.9%3-12.6%3-23.6%3-33.3%3-4+4.6%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.6%4+-22.2%4+-32.1%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 22.9% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 56.4% — — —

Over 2.5 69.8% — — —

Over 3.5 65.5% — — —

BTTS 64.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-4

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.8 BTTS prob64.6%

A 56% / xG 1.7-2.8 / O2.5 70% / BTTS 65%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.4%

#2 1–3 6.9%

#3 2–2 6.3%

#4 1–1 5.3%

#5 2–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coburg1.7

Neumarkt2.8

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.8% · O3.5 PROB 65.5%

Form & verdict PPG

COBURG · PPG 1.13

NEUMARKT · PPG 1.47

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.13) vs Away AVERAGE (1.47)

Win probability 1X2

Coburg (H) 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Neumarkt (A) 56.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Coburg face Neumarkt in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coburg a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Neumarkt 56%, so Neumarkt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Coburg and 2.8 for Neumarkt (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 65% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coburg are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.47 for Neumarkt. This match finished 2-4.

Coburg vs Neumarkt Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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