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Grossschwarz. vs Gebenbach Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Bayern Nord - 33 ·Friday, May 8, 2026, 17:00

Grossschwarz.

PPG 0.67 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Gebenbach

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.5%0-27.8%0-34.7%0-4+3.3%1 1-05.8%1-110.6%1-29.6%1-35.9%1-4+4.0%2 2-03.6%2-16.5%2-26.0%2-33.6%2-4+2.5%3 3-01.5%3-12.7%3-22.5%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.6% — — —

Draw 27.0% — — —

Away win 45.4% — — —

Over 2.5 59.4% — — —

Over 3.5 36.7% — — —

BTTS 58.8% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob58.8%

A 45% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–2 7.8%

#4 0–1 8.5%

#5 2–1 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Grossschwarz.1.2

Gebenbach1.8

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.4% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

GROSSSCHWARZ. · PPG 0.67

GEBENBACH · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: AVERAGE form (1.33) vs Home POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

Grossschwarz. (H) 27.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gebenbach (A) 45.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Grossschwarz. face Gebenbach in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Friday, May 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Grossschwarz. a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Gebenbach 45%, so Gebenbach are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Grossschwarz. and 1.8 for Gebenbach (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Grossschwarz. are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Gebenbach. This match finished 2-3.

Grossschwarz. vs Gebenbach Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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