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ATSV Erlangen vs Bayern Hof Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Bayern Nord - 34 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

ATSV Erlangen

PPG 1.67 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Bayern Hof

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-16.1%0-25.4%0-33.2%0-4+2.1%1 1-05.5%1-19.7%1-28.6%1-35.1%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.4%2-17.8%2-26.9%2-34.1%2-4+2.7%3 3-02.3%3-14.1%3-23.7%3-32.2%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.4%4+-22.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 41.1% — — —

Over 2.5 62.6% — — —

Over 3.5 43.6% — — —

BTTS 59.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 26%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob59.7%

A 41% / xG 1.6-1.8 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.9%

#5 0–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ATSV Erlangen1.6

Bayern Hof1.8

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATSV ERLANGEN · PPG 1.67

BAYERN HOF · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

ATSV Erlangen (H) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Bayern Hof (A) 41.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

ATSV Erlangen face Bayern Hof in Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ATSV Erlangen a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Bayern Hof 41%, so Bayern Hof are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for ATSV Erlangen and 1.8 for Bayern Hof (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ATSV Erlangen are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.07 for Bayern Hof. This match finished 3-3.

ATSV Erlangen vs Bayern Hof Prediction— Germany - Oberliga - Bayern Nord

Match Preview & Prediction

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