Today / Murata vs Fiorentino

Murata vs Fiorentino Prediction

Regular Season - 29 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Murata

PPG 0.14 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Fiorentino

PPG 1.86 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home POOR (0.14)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-113.9%0-215.1%0-311.0%0-4+9.9%1 1-03.7%1-18.0%1-28.7%1-36.3%1-4+5.7%2 2-01.1%2-12.3%2-22.5%2-31.8%2-4+1.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.4%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 8.4% — — —

Draw 17.3% — — —

Away win 74.3% — — —

Over 2.5 51.8% — — —

Over 3.5 29.6% — — —

BTTS 38.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob38.7%

A 74% / xG 0.6-2.2 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 39%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 15.1%

#2 0–1 13.9%

#3 0–3 11.0%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 1–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Murata0.6

Fiorentino2.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.8% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MURATA · PPG 0.14

FIORENTINO · PPG 1.86

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.86) vs Home POOR (0.14)

Win probability 1X2

Murata (H) 8.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fiorentino (A) 74.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Murata face Fiorentino on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Murata a 8% chance, the draw 17% and Fiorentino 74%, so Fiorentino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Murata and 2.2 for Fiorentino (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Murata are averaging 0.14 points per game versus 1.86 for Fiorentino. This match finished 1-4.

Murata vs Fiorentino Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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