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Uniao de Leiria vs Penafiel Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Uniao de Leiria

PPG 1.64 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Penafiel

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-17.5%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.3%1-111.7%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.1%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.7%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% 55.2% 1.81 +1.9%

Draw 25.4% 29.9% 3.35 -14.9%

Away win 18.2% 24.4% 4.10 -25.4%

Over 2.5 40.9% 52.6% 1.90 -22.3%

Over 3.5 20.5% 30.8% 3.25 -33.4%

BTTS 42.1% 57.8% 1.73 -27.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -30.0%

Bet Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob42.1%

H 56% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 41% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–1 11.7%

#4 0–0 9.8%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uniao de Leiria1.6

Penafiel0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.9% · O3.5 PROB 20.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIAO DE LEIRIA · PPG 1.64

PENAFIEL · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Uniao de Leiria (H) 56.3%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +1.9%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.9%

Penafiel (A) 18.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -25.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uniao de Leiria face Penafiel in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uniao de Leiria a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Penafiel 18%, so Uniao de Leiria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Uniao de Leiria and 0.8 for Penafiel (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uniao de Leiria are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.07 for Penafiel. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 4-2.

Uniao de Leiria vs Penafiel Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Portugal - Segunda Liga Predictions