Uniao de Leiria vs Penafiel Prediction— Portugal - Segunda Liga

Portugal - Segunda Liga Regular Season - 30 Estádio Dr. Magalhães Pessoa· Leiria Saturday, April 18, 2026 13:00

Uniao de Leiria PPG 1.64

4-2 MISS

Penafiel PPG 1.07

Home· +1.9% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Uniao de Leiria face Penafiel in Portugal - Segunda Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uniao de Leiria a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Penafiel 18%, so Uniao de Leiria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Uniao de Leiria and 0.8 for Penafiel (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uniao de Leiria are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.07 for Penafiel. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 4-2.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 56.3%

Odds: 1.81 EV: +1.9%

Draw 25.4%

Odds: 3.35 EV: -14.9%

Away 18.2%

Odds: 4.10 EV: -25.4%

Model lean: Home

Result: Home ✔

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 40.9% Odds: 1.90 -22.3%

Over 3.5 20.5% Odds: 3.25 -33.4%

BTTS 42.1% Odds: 1.73 -27.2%

O2.5 UNDER → OVER ✘ BTTS NO → YES ✘

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0 ✘

2nd 2-0 ✘

3rd 1-1 ✘

4th 0-0 ✘

5th 2-1 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Uniao de Leiria

1.56

Penafiel

0.76

Model SuggestionHome +1.9% ROI TRACKS: Home
Tracked ROI market: Home. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5/Under 45%

BTTS/No 38%

Score Hit 41%

ROI -45.7%

Bet Hit 30% (10 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.64) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)