Today / S. Siegen vs SSVg Velbert

S. Siegen vs SSVg Velbert Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

S. Siegen

PPG 1.63 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

SSVg Velbert

PPG 1.19 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-13.6%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.1%1-18.4%1-23.9%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.1%3-17.5%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-08.1%4+-17.5%4+-23.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.0% — — —

Draw 21.7% — — —

Away win 18.3% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 40.6% — — —

BTTS 53.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 46%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.7%

H 60% / xG 2.3-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–1 8.4%

#4 3–0 8.1%

#5 1–0 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S. Siegen2.3

SSVg Velbert0.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

S. SIEGEN · PPG 1.63

SSVG VELBERT · PPG 1.19

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.63) > Away AVERAGE (1.19)

Win probability 1X2

S. Siegen (H) 60.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

SSVg Velbert (A) 18.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

S. Siegen face SSVg Velbert on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S. Siegen a 60% chance, the draw 22% and SSVg Velbert 18%, so S. Siegen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for S. Siegen and 0.9 for SSVg Velbert (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S. Siegen are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.19 for SSVg Velbert. This match finished 3-1.

S. Siegen vs SSVg Velbert Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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