Today / Lotte vs Fortuna Koln

Lotte vs Fortuna Koln Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Lotte

PPG 1.31 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Fortuna Koln

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-110.4%0-210.0%0-36.4%0-4+4.8%1 1-05.4%1-110.3%1-29.9%1-36.4%1-4+4.8%2 2-02.7%2-15.1%2-24.9%2-33.2%2-4+2.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.7%3-21.6%3-31.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.5%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 21.8% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 54.3% — — —

Over 2.5 59.1% — — —

Over 3.5 33.4% — — —

BTTS 53.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob53.2%

A 54% / xG 1.0-1.9 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 0–2 10.0%

#3 1–2 9.9%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lotte1.0

Fortuna Koln1.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 33.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LOTTE · PPG 1.31

FORTUNA KOLN · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.88) vs Home AVERAGE (1.31)

Win probability 1X2

Lotte (H) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fortuna Koln (A) 54.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lotte face Fortuna Koln on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lotte a 22% chance, the draw 24% and Fortuna Koln 54%, so Fortuna Koln are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Lotte and 1.9 for Fortuna Koln (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lotte are averaging 1.31 points per game versus 1.88 for Fortuna Koln. This match finished 2-2.

Lotte vs Fortuna Koln Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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