Today / FC Koln B vs Schalke 04 B

FC Koln B vs Schalke 04 B Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

FC Koln B
PPG 1.63 · HOME
1 – 5
FULL TIME
✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5
Schalke 04 B
PPG 1.81 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.2%0-24.6%0-33.3%0-4+3.0%1 1-03.5%1-17.5%1-28.1%1-35.9%1-4+5.2%2 2-03.1%2-16.6%2-27.2%2-35.2%2-4+4.6%3 3-01.8%3-13.9%3-24.2%3-33.0%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.6%4+-22.8%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.8%
Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV
Home win 35.0%
Draw 23.4%
Away win 41.6%
Over 2.5 63.9%
Over 3.5 55.3%
BTTS 63.0%
Home O1.5
Away O1.5

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 57%CONFIDENCE
✘ MISS — FT 1-5
xG (home)1.8 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.0%

A 42% / xG 1.8-2.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%
#2 1–2 8.1%
#3 2–2 7.2%
#4 2–1 6.6%
#5 1–3 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Koln B1.8
Schalke 04 B2.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 55.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FC KOLN B · PPG 1.63

SCHALKE 04 B · PPG 1.81

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value
42%
BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.81)

Win probability 1X2

FC Koln B (H) 35.0%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Draw 23.4%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —
Schalke 04 B (A) 41.6%
ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Koln B face Schalke 04 B on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Koln B a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Schalke 04 B 42%, so Schalke 04 B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for FC Koln B and 2.2 for Schalke 04 B (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Koln B are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.81 for Schalke 04 B. This match finished 1-5.

PredictVantage

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