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Pelister vs Makedonija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Regular Season - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Pelister

PPG 1.15 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Makedonija

PPG 0.57 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-110.1%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.3%1-112.9%1-25.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.3%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.5%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 59.9% 1.67 -22.2%

Draw 28.8% 28.6% 3.50 +0.8%

Away win 24.6% 23.8% 4.20 +3.3%

Over 2.5 35.7% 51.3% 1.95 -30.4%

Over 3.5 16.6% — — —

BTTS 41.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 48%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 32%

ROI 6.8%

Bet Hit 62%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob41.1%

H 47% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 36% / NoBTTS 41%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 10.1%

#5 2–0✓ 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pelister1.3

Makedonija0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.7% · O3.5 PROB 16.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PELISTER · PPG 1.15

MAKEDONIJA · PPG 0.57

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.15) > Away POOR (0.57)

Win probability 1X2

Pelister (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -22.2%

Draw 28.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV +0.8%

Makedonija (A) 24.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Pelister face Makedonija in Macedonia - First League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pelister a 47% chance, the draw 29% and Makedonija 25%, so Pelister are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Pelister and 0.8 for Makedonija (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 36% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 41% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pelister are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.57 for Makedonija. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 2-0.

Pelister vs Makedonija Prediction— Macedonia - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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