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Samtredia vs Shturmi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Samtredia

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Shturmi

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.5%0-115.4%0-28.2%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.6%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.5%2-15.8%2-23.1%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.6%3-11.7%3-20.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.2% 43.5% 2.30 -30.5%

Draw 33.4% 30.8% 3.25 +8.6%

Away win 36.4% 37.0% 2.70 -1.7%

Over 2.5 35.0% 45.5% 2.20 -23.0%

Over 3.5 13.0% 25.0% 4.00 -28.8%

BTTS 48.6% 54.1% 1.85 -10.1%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.6%

D 33% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.5%

#2 1–1✓ 13.4%

#3 0–1 15.4%

#4 1–0 12.6%

#5 0–2 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Samtredia0.9

Shturmi1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 35.0% · O3.5 PROB 13.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMTREDIA · PPG 1.67

SHTURMI · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Samtredia (H) 30.2%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -30.5%

Draw 33.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +8.6%

Shturmi (A) 36.4%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -1.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Samtredia face Shturmi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Samtredia a 30% chance, the draw 33% and Shturmi 36%, so Shturmi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Samtredia and 1.1 for Shturmi (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Samtredia are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.33 for Shturmi. The best value bet our model finds is a draw, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Samtredia vs Shturmi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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