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Merani Martvili vs Telavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Regular Season - 13 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Merani Martvili

PPG 1.83 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Telavi

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-17.8%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-111.8%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-18.9%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.0%3-14.5%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 54.6% 1.83 -5.0%

Draw 26.5% 30.3% 3.30 -7.5%

Away win 21.6% 26.7% 3.75 -11.4%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.1% 2.08 -3.9%

Over 3.5 19.0% 26.7% 3.75 -17.3%

BTTS 48.6% 52.4% 1.91 -7.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 37 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 57%

ROI 1.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 11.8%

#3 0–0✓ 10.6%

#4 2–0 12.0%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Merani Martvili1.5

Telavi0.7

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MERANI MARTVILI · PPG 1.83

TELAVI · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.83) vs P(Home)=51.9%

Win probability 1X2

Merani Martvili (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -5.0%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.5%

Telavi (A) 21.6%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Merani Martvili face Telavi in Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Merani Martvili a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Telavi 22%, so Merani Martvili are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Merani Martvili and 0.7 for Telavi (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Merani Martvili are averaging 1.83 points per game versus 0.67 for Telavi. This match finished 0-0.

Merani Martvili vs Telavi Prediction— Georgia - Erovnuli Liga 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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