Today / Bolnisi vs Odishi 1919

Bolnisi vs Odishi 1919 Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Bolnisi

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Odishi 1919

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-16.9%0-22.7%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.6%1-111.3%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-012.0%2-19.3%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.6%3-15.1%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.4% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 21.8% — — —

Over 2.5 47.6% — — —

Over 3.5 22.6% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 1–0✓ 14.6%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bolnisi1.6

Odishi 19190.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLNISI · PPG 1.50

ODISHI 1919 · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.50) vs P(Home)=52.4%

Win probability 1X2

Bolnisi (H) 52.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Odishi 1919 (A) 21.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Bolnisi face Odishi 1919 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bolnisi a 52% chance, the draw 26% and Odishi 1919 22%, so Bolnisi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Bolnisi and 0.8 for Odishi 1919 (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bolnisi are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.67 for Odishi 1919. This match finished 1-0.

Bolnisi vs Odishi 1919 Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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