Today / Urk vs Huizen

Urk vs Huizen Prediction

Group A - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 13:00

Urk

PPG 0.86 · HOME

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Huizen

PPG 0.71 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.3%0-22.0%0-32.0%0-4+3.2%1 1-01.1%1-13.2%1-24.8%1-34.9%1-4+7.8%2 2-01.3%2-13.8%2-25.8%2-35.8%2-4+9.4%3 3-01.0%3-13.1%3-24.6%3-34.7%3-4+7.5%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-13.3%4+-24.9%4+-35.0%4+-4+8.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.1% — — —

Draw 17.2% — — —

Away win 51.7% — — —

Over 2.5 90.7% — — —

Over 3.5 79.1% — — —

BTTS 86.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob86.6%

A 52% / xG 2.4-3.0 / O2.5 91% / BTTS 87%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–3 5.8%

#2 2–2 5.8%

#3 1–3 4.9%

#4 1–2 4.8%

#5 3–3✓ 4.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Urk2.4

Huizen3.0

COMBINED 5.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 90.7% · O3.5 PROB 79.1%

Form & verdict PPG

URK · PPG 0.86

HUIZEN · PPG 0.71

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.86), Away POOR (0.71)

Win probability 1X2

Urk (H) 31.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Huizen (A) 51.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Urk face Huizen on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Urk a 31% chance, the draw 17% and Huizen 52%, so Huizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Urk and 3.0 for Huizen (5.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-3. There is a 91% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 87% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Urk are averaging 0.86 points per game versus 0.71 for Huizen. This match finished 3-3.

Urk vs Huizen Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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