Today / Armenia - Premier League / Van vs Alashkert

Van vs Alashkert Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Regular Season - 26 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 12:00

Van

PPG 1.38 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Alashkert

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.8%0-113.1%0-29.7%0-34.8%0-4+2.5%1 1-08.3%1-112.4%1-29.2%1-34.5%1-4+2.3%2 2-03.9%2-15.8%2-24.3%2-32.1%2-4+1.1%3 3-01.2%3-11.8%3-21.4%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.9% 18.2% 5.50 +32.1%

Draw 27.5% 26.7% 3.75 +1.9%

Away win 44.6% 65.4% 1.53 -31.8%

Over 2.5 47.6% 54.1% 1.85 -11.9%

Over 3.5 22.8% 31.3% 3.20 -16.2%

BTTS 51.6% 54.1% 1.85 -4.5%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -20.4%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob51.6%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.5 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1✓ 13.1%

#3 0–0 8.8%

#4 0–2 9.7%

#5 1–2 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Van0.9

Alashkert1.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 22.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VAN · PPG 1.38

ALASHKERT · PPG 1.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.38) vs Away GOOD (1.75)

Win probability 1X2

Van (H) 27.9%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +32.1%

Draw 27.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV +1.9%

Alashkert (A) 44.6%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -31.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Van face Alashkert in Armenia - Premier League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Van a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Alashkert 45%, so Alashkert are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Van and 1.5 for Alashkert (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Van are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.75 for Alashkert. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +32.1%. This match finished 0-1.

Van vs Alashkert Prediction— Armenia - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Armenia - Premier League Predictions