Today / Ulm vs RW Essen

Ulm vs RW Essen Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Ulm

PPG 1.06 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

RW Essen

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-14.3%0-25.0%0-33.9%0-4+3.9%1 1-03.1%1-17.2%1-28.3%1-36.5%1-4+6.5%2 2-02.6%2-16.0%2-26.9%2-35.4%2-4+5.4%3 3-01.4%3-13.3%3-23.8%3-33.0%3-4+3.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.0%4+-22.3%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% — — —

Draw 23.8% — — —

Away win 46.5% — — —

Over 2.5 63.9% — — —

Over 3.5 56.3% — — —

BTTS 63.0% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob63.0%

A 46% / xG 1.7-2.3 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.3%

#2 1–1 7.2%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ulm1.7

RW Essen2.3

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 56.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ULM · PPG 1.06

RW ESSEN · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.06) vs Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Ulm (H) 29.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 23.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

RW Essen (A) 46.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ulm face RW Essen on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ulm a 30% chance, the draw 24% and RW Essen 47%, so RW Essen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ulm and 2.3 for RW Essen (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ulm are averaging 1.06 points per game versus 1.50 for RW Essen. This match finished 2-3.

Ulm vs RW Essen Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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