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Narva Trans vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Regular Season - 12 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:30

Narva Trans

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Flora

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.9% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.2%0-17.6%0-29.0%0-37.2%0-4+7.6%1 1-03.4%1-18.0%1-29.6%1-37.7%1-4+8.1%2 2-01.8%2-14.3%2-25.1%2-34.1%2-4+4.3%3 3-00.6%3-11.5%3-21.8%3-31.4%3-4+1.5%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.4% 13.2% 7.60 +5.7%

Draw 23.2% 21.7% 4.60 +4.0%

Away win 62.4% 75.2% 1.33 -17.0%

Over 2.5 63.9% 64.5% 1.55 -0.9%

Over 3.5 45.4% 42.0% 2.38 +8.1%

BTTS 59.7% 56.5% 1.77 +5.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -14.4%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob59.7%

A 62% / xG 1.1-2.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.6%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 0–2 9.0%

#4 1–3 7.7%

#5 0–3✓ 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Narva Trans1.1

Flora2.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 45.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NARVA TRANS · PPG 1.20

FLORA · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.20), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Narva Trans (H) 14.4%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +5.7%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.0%

Flora (A) 62.4%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Narva Trans face Flora in Estonia - Meistriliiga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Narva Trans a 14% chance, the draw 23% and Flora 62%, so Flora are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Narva Trans and 2.4 for Flora (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Narva Trans are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.20 for Flora. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.1%. This match finished 0-3.

Narva Trans vs Flora Prediction— Estonia - Meistriliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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