Today / Lithuania - 1 Lyga / Neptuna K. vs Minija

Neptuna K. vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 10 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:00

Neptuna K.

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Minija

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 67.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+21.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-17.2%0-210.7%0-310.6%0-4+16.5%1 1-01.8%1-15.4%1-28.0%1-37.9%1-4+12.3%2 2-00.7%2-12.0%2-23.0%2-33.0%2-4+4.6%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.7%3-30.7%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 11.3% 26.3% 3.80 -34.2%

Draw 21.2% 29.9% 3.35 -17.4%

Away win 67.5% 55.6% 1.80 +21.5%

Over 2.5 63.9% 57.1% 1.75 +11.8%

Over 3.5 51.1% 38.0% 2.63 +34.4%

BTTS 51.6% 57.1% 1.75 -9.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -27.7%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob51.6%

A 68% / xG 0.7-3.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 10.7%

#2 0–3 10.6%

#3 1–2 8.0%

#4 1–3✓ 7.9%

#5 0–4 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Neptuna K.0.7

Minija3.0

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 51.1%

Form & verdict PPG

NEPTUNA K. · PPG 1.50

MINIJA · PPG 3.00

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Neptuna K. (H) 11.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -34.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -17.4%

Minija (A) 67.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +21.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Neptuna K. face Minija in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Neptuna K. a 11% chance, the draw 21% and Minija 68%, so Minija are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Neptuna K. and 3.0 for Minija (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Neptuna K. are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 3.00 for Minija. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 1-3.

Neptuna K. vs Minija Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

More Lithuania - 1 Lyga Predictions