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HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Regular Season - 7 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 11:00

HJK Helsinki

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Ilves

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.1%0-15.9%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.0%1-110.3%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-19.0%2-22.9%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.2%3-15.3%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.3%4+-13.4%4+-21.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Draw 25.5% 26.7% 3.75 -2.6%

Away win 19.5% 22.2% 4.50 -7.3%

Over 2.5 47.5% 60.6% 1.65 -21.6%

Over 3.5 22.0% 38.2% 2.62 -25.4%

BTTS 48.6% 62.5% 1.60 -22.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 48 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 42%

BTTS 38%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -4.8%

Bet Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.6%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.6 / U2.5 48% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.0%

#2 2–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 10.3%

#4 0–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HJK Helsinki1.8

Ilves0.6

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.5% · O3.5 PROB 22.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HJK HELSINKI · PPG 2.00

ILVES · PPG 0.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=55.0%

Win probability 1X2

HJK Helsinki (H) 55.0%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -8.2%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -2.6%

Ilves (A) 19.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -7.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

HJK Helsinki face Ilves in Finland - Veikkausliiga on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HJK Helsinki a 55% chance, the draw 26% and Ilves 20%, so HJK Helsinki are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for HJK Helsinki and 0.6 for Ilves (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HJK Helsinki are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.50 for Ilves. This match finished 2-2.

HJK Helsinki vs Ilves Prediction— Finland - Veikkausliiga

Match Preview & Prediction

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