Today / Wuhan Three T. vs Liaoning Tieren

Wuhan Three T. vs Liaoning Tieren Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Wuhan Three T.

PPG 1.20 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Liaoning Tieren

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.6 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.9%0-23.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.5%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.9%3-15.4%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-13.3%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% — — —

Draw 25.3% — — —

Away win 23.5% — — —

Over 2.5 51.7% — — —

Over 3.5 26.1% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.6%

H 51% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wuhan Three T.1.7

Liaoning Tieren0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 26.1%

Form & verdict PPG

WUHAN THREE T. · PPG 1.20

LIAONING TIEREN · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.20) vs P(Home)=51.3%

Win probability 1X2

Wuhan Three T. (H) 51.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Liaoning Tieren (A) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Wuhan Three T. face Liaoning Tieren on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wuhan Three T. a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Liaoning Tieren 24%, so Wuhan Three T. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Wuhan Three T. and 0.9 for Liaoning Tieren (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wuhan Three T. are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.17 for Liaoning Tieren. This match finished 2-2.

Wuhan Three T. vs Liaoning Tieren Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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