Today / Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya

Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya Prediction

Saturday, May 16, 2026

Zorya Luhansk

PPG 1.64 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Polessya

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home GOOD (1.64)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-113.5%0-29.6%0-34.5%0-4+2.2%1 1-08.9%1-112.6%1-28.9%1-34.2%1-4+2.0%2 2-04.2%2-15.9%2-24.2%2-32.0%2-4+1.0%3 3-01.3%3-11.8%3-21.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.3% — — —

Draw 28.0% — — —

Away win 43.8% — — —

Over 2.5 46.9% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 51.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob51.6%

A 44% / xG 0.9-1.4 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 0–2 9.6%

#5 1–2✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zorya Luhansk0.9

Polessya1.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ZORYA LUHANSK · PPG 1.64

POLESSYA · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.14) vs Home GOOD (1.64)

Win probability 1X2

Zorya Luhansk (H) 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Polessya (A) 43.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Zorya Luhansk face Polessya on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zorya Luhansk a 28% chance, the draw 28% and Polessya 44%, so Polessya are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Zorya Luhansk and 1.4 for Polessya (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zorya Luhansk are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 2.14 for Polessya. This match finished 1-2.

Zorya Luhansk vs Polessya Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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