Today / Ukraine - Premier League / SK Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv

SK Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 10:00

SK Poltava

PPG 0.43 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLD

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Dynamo Kyiv

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWW

// Model verdict

Away 84% chance

Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 91.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-15.3%0-28.5%0-39.0%0-4+15.9%1 1-01.5%1-14.8%1-27.7%1-38.2%1-4+14.4%2 2-00.7%2-12.2%2-23.5%2-33.7%2-4+6.5%3 3-00.2%3-10.7%3-21.1%3-31.1%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.9% 5.0% 20.00 +94.8%

Draw 20.7% 13.2% 7.60 +34.4%

Away win 66.4% 91.7% 1.09 -27.6%

Over 2.5 63.9% 80.0% 1.25 -20.1%

Over 3.5 58.4% 61.7% 1.62 -5.4%

BTTS 54.6% 50.0% 2.00 +9.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 77 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 66%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)3.2 BTTS prob54.6%

A 66% / xG 0.9-3.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 9.0%

#2 0–2✓ 8.5%

#3 1–3 8.2%

#4 1–2 7.7%

#5 0–4 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SK Poltava0.9

Dynamo Kyiv3.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.9% · O3.5 PROB 58.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SK POLTAVA · PPG 0.43

DYNAMO KYIV · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

Chance this pick lands

84%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.79) vs Home POOR (0.43)

Win probability 1X2

SK Poltava (H) 12.9%

ODDS 20.00 · IMPLIED 5.0% EV +94.8%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 7.60 · IMPLIED 13.2% EV +34.4%

Dynamo Kyiv (A) 66.4%

ODDS 1.09 · IMPLIED 91.7% EV -27.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

SK Poltava face Dynamo Kyiv in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SK Poltava a 13% chance, the draw 21% and Dynamo Kyiv 66%, so Dynamo Kyiv are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for SK Poltava and 3.2 for Dynamo Kyiv (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SK Poltava are averaging 0.43 points per game versus 1.79 for Dynamo Kyiv. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +94.8%. This match finished 0-2.

SK Poltava vs Dynamo Kyiv Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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