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Metalist 1925 vs Episentr Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Matchday 29 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 10:00

Metalist 1925

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Episentr

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDD

// Model verdict

Home 58% chance

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-18.4%0-22.8%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.8%1-111.8%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-18.3%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-05.9%3-13.9%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-11.9%4+-20.6%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.6% 61.0% 1.64 -15.4%

Draw 26.9% 29.4% 3.40 -5.1%

Away win 21.5% 19.6% 5.10 +5.8%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.8% 2.05 -5.3%

Over 3.5 15.5% 27.0% 3.70 -25.6%

BTTS 48.6% 51.8% 1.93 -6.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 51%

ROI 13.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 52% / xG 1.4-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.8%

#2 0–0 12.6%

#3 1–1✓ 11.8%

#4 2–0 12.5%

#5 2–1 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metalist 19251.4

Episentr0.7

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 15.5%

Form & verdict PPG

METALIST 1925 · PPG 1.79

EPISENTR · PPG 1.07

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.79) > Away AVERAGE (1.07)

Win probability 1X2

Metalist 1925 (H) 51.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -15.4%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.1%

Episentr (A) 21.5%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +5.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Metalist 1925 face Episentr in Ukraine - Premier League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metalist 1925 a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Episentr 22%, so Metalist 1925 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Metalist 1925 and 0.7 for Episentr (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metalist 1925 are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.07 for Episentr. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Metalist 1925 vs Episentr Prediction— Ukraine - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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