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Kingsley vs Floreat Athena Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 10:00

Kingsley

PPG 2.50 · HOME

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Floreat Athena

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.6%0-25.4%0-32.0%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.5%1-112.8%1-27.2%1-32.7%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.7%2-18.6%2-24.8%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.4%3-13.8%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 40.0% 2.50 +13.0%

Draw 28.1% 27.0% 3.70 +2.4%

Away win 26.7% 44.4% 2.25 -23.9%

Over 2.5 47.6% 65.4% 1.53 -27.2%

Over 3.5 23.1% 44.8% 2.23 -29.1%

BTTS 51.6% 70.4% 1.42 -26.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob51.6%

H 45% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 8.6%

#5 0–1 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kingsley1.3

Floreat Athena1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KINGSLEY · PPG 2.50

FLOREAT ATHENA · PPG 1.00

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.50) vs P(Home)=45.2%

Win probability 1X2

Kingsley (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +13.0%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +2.4%

Floreat Athena (A) 26.7%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -23.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kingsley face Floreat Athena in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kingsley a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Floreat Athena 27%, so Kingsley are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Kingsley and 1.1 for Floreat Athena (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kingsley are averaging 2.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Floreat Athena. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +13.0%. This match finished 0-4.

Kingsley vs Floreat Athena Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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