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St George City vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 09:15

St George City

PPG 1.38 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

APIA Leichhardt

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.0%0-110.6%0-211.2%0-37.9%0-4+6.8%1 1-04.4%1-19.3%1-29.8%1-36.9%1-4+6.0%2 2-01.9%2-14.1%2-24.3%2-33.1%2-4+2.6%3 3-00.6%3-11.2%3-21.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 14.3% 19.6% 5.10 -16.2%

Draw 23.7% 23.8% 4.20 -0.3%

Away win 62.0% 66.7% 1.50 -7.0%

Over 2.5 59.1% 66.7% 1.50 -11.3%

Over 3.5 35.2% 43.5% 2.30 -19.0%

BTTS 52.5% 63.7% 1.57 -17.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob52.5%

A 62% / xG 0.9-2.1 / O2.5 59% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2 11.2%

#2 1–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 9.8%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 0–3 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St George City0.9

APIA Leichhardt2.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.1% · O3.5 PROB 35.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ST GEORGE CITY · PPG 1.38

APIA LEICHHARDT · PPG 1.83

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: AVERAGE (1.38) vs Away GOOD (1.83)

Win probability 1X2

St George City (H) 14.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV -16.2%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -0.3%

APIA Leichhardt (A) 62.0%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -7.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

St George City face APIA Leichhardt in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St George City a 14% chance, the draw 24% and APIA Leichhardt 62%, so APIA Leichhardt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for St George City and 2.1 for APIA Leichhardt (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St George City are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.83 for APIA Leichhardt. This match finished 2-1.

St George City vs APIA Leichhardt Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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