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S George Saints vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 15 ·Saturday, May 16, 2026, 08:30

S George Saints

PPG 1.50 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Sydney Utd

PPG 2.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 56.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-113.5%0-211.6%0-36.6%0-4+4.2%1 1-06.5%1-111.2%1-29.6%1-35.5%1-4+3.4%2 2-02.7%2-14.6%2-23.9%2-32.3%2-4+1.4%3 3-00.7%3-11.3%3-21.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.3%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 16.7% 26.3% 3.80 -21.9%

Draw 26.7% 27.0% 3.70 -0.7%

Away win 56.5% 56.5% 1.77 0.0%

Over 2.5 48.4% 57.8% 1.73 -16.3%

Over 3.5 25.1% 35.1% 2.85 -17.1%

BTTS 52.1% 60.6% 1.65 -14.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.1%

A 56% / xG 0.8-1.7 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 0–1 13.5%

#3 0–2 11.6%

#4 1–2 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

S George Saints0.8

Sydney Utd1.7

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.4% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

S GEORGE SAINTS · PPG 1.50

SYDNEY UTD · PPG 2.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.40) vs Home GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

S George Saints (H) 16.7%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -21.9%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.7%

Sydney Utd (A) 56.5%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV 0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

S George Saints face Sydney Utd in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives S George Saints a 17% chance, the draw 27% and Sydney Utd 56%, so Sydney Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for S George Saints and 1.7 for Sydney Utd (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, S George Saints are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.40 for Sydney Utd. This match finished 1-3.

S George Saints vs Sydney Utd Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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