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SC Wanderers vs St George W. Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Saturday, May 16, 2026, 08:00

SC Wanderers

PPG 1.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

St George W.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-15.7%0-21.8%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.6%1-110.2%1-23.3%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.9%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.3%3-15.4%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-13.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.0% 51.3% 1.95 +5.3%

Draw 26.3% 27.0% 3.70 -1.6%

Away win 19.8% 32.3% 3.10 -23.2%

Over 2.5 47.4% 67.6% 1.48 -29.8%

Over 3.5 22.9% 45.5% 2.20 -29.8%

BTTS 48.1% 70.4% 1.42 -31.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.1%

H 54% / xG 1.8-0.7 / O2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.6%

#2 2–0 13.9%

#3 1–1 10.2%

#4 0–0 8.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SC Wanderers1.8

St George W.0.7

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 47.4% · O3.5 PROB 22.9%

Form & verdict PPG

SC WANDERERS · PPG 1.20

ST GEORGE W. · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.20) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

SC Wanderers (H) 54.0%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV +5.3%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -1.6%

St George W. (A) 19.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -23.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

SC Wanderers face St George W. in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Saturday, May 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SC Wanderers a 54% chance, the draw 26% and St George W. 20%, so SC Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for SC Wanderers and 0.7 for St George W. (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SC Wanderers are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.67 for St George W.. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +5.3%.

SC Wanderers vs St George W. Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Queensland Premier League Predictions